"Our Legacy: Missile Defense 2020"
Video Script

INTRODUCTION

Advanced ballistic missile threats are potentially the most dangerous menaces we will face as a Nation over the next decade.  

The mission of the Missile Defense Agency is to develop and field an integrated, layered, increasingly robust ballistic missile defense system to defend the United States, its deployed forces, allies, and partners against all ranges of enemy ballistic missiles in all phases of flight. 

Today, thirty operational Ground-Based Interceptors deployed in missile fields at Fort Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base in California protect the U.S. homeland against ICBMs launched from today’s regional threats.  

The homeland missile defense architecture also includes early warning radars in Alaska, California, Thule Greenland, and Fylingdales in the United Kingdom.   Upgraded early warning radars at Clear, Alaska and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are planned for later this decade.  

The system also receives threat detection and tracking cues from AN/TPY-2 X-band radars in forward based mode, such as the one currently deployed at Shariki, Japan and Aegis BMD ships in the Long Range Surveillance and Tracking mode.

This is a high-resolution radar capable of tracking all classes of ballistic missiles and identifying small objects at long distances.  

For regional missile defenses, the Missile Defense Agency has developed and fielded a range of land- and sea-based terminal and midcourse capabilities to counter short and medium-range ballistic missiles.

The Patriot Advanced Capability-3 conducts short range ballistic missile defense.  This interceptor is highly transportable and is deployed today in multiple regions, from the Pacific region, to Europe, to the Middle East.

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, also is a transportable missile defense capability.  Each battery has interceptors, a launcher, an AN/TPY-2 radar in terminal mode, and fire control and communications and can destroy targets inside and outside the atmosphere.

Aegis BMD ships using the SPY-1 radar, network sensors such as the AN/TPY-2, and the Standard Missile-3 Block IA guided missile offer a flexible regional missile defense capability against short- and medium-range threats.
 
A Command, Control, Battle Management and Communication network supplemented by regional command and control nodes manages the full system.

Over the next ten years we are developing several early intercept capabilities to add an additional layer to existing midcourse and terminal defenses.    

Advanced versions of the Standard Missile-3 will be deployed at sea and at Aegis Ashore sites in Romania and Poland.

By the end of this decade, the transportable Standard-Missile-3 two-B will be available at forward-based locations to defeat longer range threats and provide early intercept opportunity.  

Forward deployed infrared sensors on Remotely Piloted Vehicles and persistent continuous tracking of re-entry vehicles from space with Precision Tracking Space System satellites will expand the engagement zones of interceptors and maximize the effectiveness of long-range interceptors.

Over the next decade, we also will field an enhanced command and control infrastructure to tie these assets together and provide a single battle picture and integrated battle management for U.S. homeland and regional defense.

Using current and planned interceptors, sensors, fire control, battle management capabilities and early intercept technologies now under development, the Missile Defense Agency is preparing to defeat ballistic missiles of all ranges and raid sizes.  by the latter half of this deca

I-SIM SCENARIO SET-UP SCRIPT

It’s March 21, 2020.  Tensions in the Middle East are on the rise.  For months now, the U.S. intelligence community has observed the mobilization of ballistic missile forces by Iran.  

Dozens of transporters carrying short-range, medium-range, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles have been deployed around the country.  

Two intercontinental ballistic missiles, reported by Iranian officials to be space launch vehicles, have been erected on launch pads and there is heightened activity around these launch sites.

Over the past several months, the United States has been surging short- and medium-range land and sea-based missile defense assets into the Gulf region, the Mediterranean Sea, and northern Europe and tying them into regional command and control structures.   

U.S. and allied missile defense forces in the U.S. Central Command, European Command, and Northern Command areas of responsibility have been placed on high alert and are preparing to execute possible missile defense engagements in the three separate regions.  

I-SIM SCENARIO SCRIPT

Start I-Sim

00:00 – In the regions nearest Iran, we have deployed several Patriot PAC-3 batteries along the Persian Gulf and to the north.  

The green fans indicate the search volume of the Patriot’s radar.

The THAAD radar, a AN/TPY-2 in the terminal mode, placed near the Gulf has significantly more reach when compared to the Patriot radar.

THAAD’s interceptor can also fly farther.

Stationed in the northern Gulf, the search fan of a Spy-1 radar on an Aegis ship, indicated by the large green dome, reaches far into Iranian territory.

Moving now to the European theater, we see the radar fans of three Aegis ships carrying Standard Missile 3 – one-B and two-A missiles, one ship stationed in the Mediterranean, one in the Adriatic, and one in northern Europe.

Adding to this sensor network, there is a forward-deployed AN/TPY-2 X-band radar in the forward based mode northwest of Iran and an upgraded early warning radar located at Fylingdales in the United Kingdom.

The system combines the information from all of these sensors to create a single picture of the battle space.

Space Based Infrared sensors have just detected two threat launches out of central Iran.  

The SBIRS early warning satellite detects and provides a predicted track for this threat.  

These short-range ballistic missile threats are predicted to impact anywhere from the Gulf coast to central Saudi Arabia.

We need more precise tracking data to understand where they are most likely to hit.

The first ground-based sensor to pick up the threats and track them is the THAAD radar.

The dotted yellow lines indicates that the THAAD radar, an AN/TPY-2 in terminal mode, is tracking the two threats, and it is passing this information into the regional command and control.

This tracking information is made available to all shooters in the region, and the interceptor with the best chance of countering the threat missile receives the assignment.

With the short-range threats in the air, the system now detects the launch of two more threat missiles, one from western Iran, and a second one from northern Iran.

Within seconds, the detection and prediction data from the SBIRS early warning satellites show that these two threats are ICBMs and they are on trajectories toward the United States.

In the Middle East, the theater fight is well under way, with two short-range threat missiles in the air.  

THAAD has already determined that the two missiles are heading for a friendly nation on the Gulf, and it is already locked into a weapons task plan to engage one of them.  

As THAAD intercepts the first threat missile, the second short-range threat continues on its course towards the Gulf coast.

At this time, the two ICBM threats are high in their boosting phase on a trajectory that will overfly Europe.

As the forward-based AN/TPY-2 radar northwest of Iran picks up the two ICBMs, in the Gulf region, a Patriot battery successfully intercepts the second short-range threat missile.

The data from the AN/TPY-2 on the two ICBMs are fed into C2BMC so that two more theaters can prepare for the upcoming battle.  

At the same time the system is preparing to intercept the ICBMs, several more ballistic missiles are launched out of Iran.  These are heading for Europe.

The large radar fan of the Fylingdales UEWR finally picks up the ICBM threats.  
Without the AN/TPY-2 radar northwest of Iran, this would be the first opportunity to send track information on these threats to the C2BMC.

The blue line coming out of northern Europe shows that the system is attempting to engage one of the ICBMs early in its flight with an SM-3 two B deployed at an Aegis Ashore site in Poland.

Early intercept capabilities can improve system performance by increasing the number of shots against a threat missile.

Looking from high above Europe, we get a better view of the SM-3 two B’s flight path and how the battle is now unfolding in two distinct theaters.

As the SM-3 two B is closing in on its target, the forward-based AN/TPY-2 radar has picked up three new ballistic missiles launches out of Iran.

The Aegis ship in the Persian Gulf is also tracking three new threats and sending this data into the C2BMC.

The system shows one missile heading towards a city in southern Europe, the second missile on a flight path to impact in central Europe, and that the third threat, an intermediate-range ballistic missile, is predicted to hit in northern Europe.

As the system tracks all of these threats, the SM-3 two B, the blue line above northern Europe, is closing in on the first ICBM.

The complexity of this battlefield, which now spans three theaters, demonstrates the importance of having a high capacity C2BMC infrastructure.  

The system must sort through the detection, tracking, classification and hit assessment information it receives from the sensors to provide accurate and up-to-date information on the target to the interceptors.

The SM-3 two B has now destroyed the first ICBM target, and the other ICBM is leaving the space above Europe and heading toward the United States.

By this time, missile defense assets based in Europe have locked in weapons task plans to counter the medium- and intermediate-range threats coming into this region.

In northern Europe, we can see that an Aegis ship has launched an SM-3 two A.  

The Aegis Ashore site in Romania also has launched an SM-3 two B.

And finally, the Aegis Ashore site in Poland launches an SM-3 two B to destroy the third and last ballistic missile flying into Europe.

Four threat missiles are in the air.  

Should the interceptors first launched at the target miss, if there is enough time, the system is designed to launch additional interceptors at the target.

The first interceptor to score a hit against the threat missiles coming into Europe is the SM-3 two B launched from the Aegis Ashore site in Romania.   

Given the geographic location of this site, the Romanian site had the best opportunity to intercept the threat heading towards southern Europe.

Looking again from above Europe, the SM-3 two B launched out of Poland scores the second hit, and the SM-3 two A launched from the Aegis ship stationed in northern Europe is on track to destroy the third and final threat missile flying into Europe.

Moving again across the Atlantic, a final battle must be waged against the ICBM heading toward the United States.

The blue lines show that the BMDS, based on information that has been fed into C2BMC by sensors deployed in the Middle East, has already committed Ground-Based Interceptors to counter this threat.

One GBI has been launched from Fort Greely, Alaska.  The second GBI is coming from the missile field at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

While the target is flying in space, Precision Tracking Space System satellites will have the opportunity to provide very accurate tracking and discrimination information into the system to improve overall system performance.

The PTSS satellites and ground system will provide a persistent remote missile tracking capability.  

Thule upgraded early warning radar picks up the threat and will give the system another look at the threat.  If the system hasn’t discriminated the threat object early on, it will have a better chance to do so with this second viewing by a UEWR.

We can see more clearly now that the impact is predicted to be somewhere in the southeast United States.

The Cape Cod upgraded early warning radar provides additional data on the threat to refine the information being sent to the Ground Based Interceptor.

The system has decided to shoot two separate GBIs from two separate missile fields to increase the probability that we will kill this threat.

The Fort Greely GBI is the first interceptor to reach and destroy the target.

The battle has ended, and missile defense has contributed to the defeat of ballistic missile attacks against the U.S. homeland, deployed forces, and our allies.

This scenario limited the numbers of threats to provide a notional illustration of the Phased Adaptive Approach ballistic missile defense architecture. The scenario did not demonstrate the total defensive capacity of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System nor its planned application in any particular theater, and it did not attempt to show a fully integrated and layered missile defense operation composed of U.S. and Allied systems. 
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