The Threat Environment
Countries invest in ballistic missiles because they are a means to project power in regional and strategic contexts, and a capability to launch an attack from a distance.
According to the Intelligence Community, ballistic missile proliferation continues to grow as countries acquire a greater number of ballistic missiles, increasing their range, incorporating BMD countermeasures and making them more complex, survivable, reliable and accurate. Maneuvering threats continue to be developed and fielded in threat countries. The proliferation of ballistic missiles is increasing the number of anti-access weapons available to potential regional adversaries. These weapons could be used to reduce military options for Combatant Commanders and decrease the survivability of regional military assets.
Technological advances are now making hypersonic glide vehicles and missiles flying non-ballistic trajectories practicable.
Intelligence Reports
- Defense Intelligence Agency: Worldwide Threat Assessment (2025):
"U.S. adversaries continue efforts to advance their missile capabilities threatening the Homeland - including traditional ballistic missiles, aeroballistic and cruise missiles, and novel nuclear and conventional warhead delivery systems. Both China and Russia are expanding their missile inventories and aggressively pursuing new systems, such as hypersonic glide vehicles, engineered to complicate U.S. defenses in the event of a conflict. North Korea now has developed an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of ranging the continental United States." - Defense Intelligence Agency: Current and Future Missile Threats to the U.S. Homeland (2025)
"Missile threats to the U.S. homeland will expand in scale and sophistication in the coming decade. China and Russia are developing an array of novel delivery systems to exploit gaps in current U.S. ballistic missile defenses, but traditional ballistic missiles - which are guided during powered flight and unguided during free flight - will remain the primary threat to the Homeland. North Korea has successfully tested ballistic missiles with sufficient range to reach the entire Homeland, and Iran has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a militarily-viable ICBM by 2035 should Tehran decide to pursue the capability."
Public Statements
- "Within the last four decades, our adversaries have developed more advanced and lethal long-range weapons than ever before, including ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles capable of striking the homeland with either conventional or nuclear warheads." - Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth
- "Missile threats pose a substantial and growing risk to the American people, U.S. national interests, and our allies and partners.... DoD must contend with adversaries possessing a range of sophisticated technologies, including advanced cruise and ballistic missiles and maneuverable HGVs, as well as lower-tier threats like unmanned aircraft systems from both state and non-state actors. These capabilities continue to evolve and include a wide range of platforms, speeds, distances, and attack vectors that are easily concealed and evasive. This is where the value of missile defense... comes in." - Andrea Yaffe, Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy
Countering the Threat
Through its capabilities for defending critical nodes, military assets, and seats of government, missile defense enhances existing non-proliferation activities. Missile defenses can provide a permanent presence in a region and discourage adversaries from believing they can use ballistic missiles to coerce or intimidate the U.S. or its allies.
